A year of F1 predictions reviewed!
FINAL CORNER, CHEQUERED FLAG: One last look around the block of the 2024 season before our attention turns to 2025
The F1 season is tantalisingly close and excitement is through the roof for the final year of this set of regulations.
Typically, the final year can mean a convergence at the front, as we witnessed in 2021 when Red Bull finally caught up to Mercedes after the 2017 changes.
Prior to pre-season testing getting underway in Bahrain on Wednesday morning, I’ve decided to take one last look back at 2024 and the many predictions I made before I start making a whole bunch of new ones for 2025.
Firstly, let’s look at where I went wrong…
Instead of just going down the list of each prediction as they were made, it’d be easier to start with the ones where I went wrong.
My pre-season prediction assumed Red Bull would win the championship, so opted to predict 2nd, 3rd and 4th, picking McLaren for third place.
More nuance is needed for my next incorrect claim, as I suggested Sergio Perez would keep his seat with a one-year contract extension. This was half right! But it was also half wrong as Perez did get an extension yet he will not be on the grid in 2025. I later again predicted Perez would be on the grid in 2025 nearer the end of the season, once he’d been given that extension but uncertainty remained over his future.
The points system was under consideration in 2024, with teams discussing whether to give points to the top 12, or even potentially every car that finishes a grand prix. I thought this would pass, but instead it will remain just the top 10 runners. However, the point for the fastest lap has been removed for 2025.
The next batch of incorrect predictions involved the driver market, which was quite hectic before the 2024 season even got under way. I thought Pierre Gasly and Yuki Tsunoda would both move teams (Sauber and Haas, respectively) but, of course, both remained at their current teams for 2025. I also predicted Valtteri Bottas would move to Alpine and that Daniel Ricciardo would still be with Racing Bulls (fka. Alpha Tauri/Toro Rosso).
The rest of my wrong predictions were all rapid fire, and all came in the second half of the season as the championship started to hot up. I guessed Max Verstappen wouldn’t win again this season and he did so twice (Brazil and Qatar), I predicted that Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri would come to blows, and they managed to keep things clean. I predicted the championship gap between Verstappen and Norris would be 35 points by Singapore and it wasn’t.
Finally, I tipped Ferrari for the title and Charles Leclerc to pip Norris for second, and I also picked Haas over Alpine in the close battle for fifth in the standings.
Where I was right!
While that may sound like a lot to be wrong about, there was also plenty that I got right about F1 in 2024. Before we get fully into these, I would also like to claim half a point for predicting that Andretti would not buy the Enstone team, which is currently under the guise of Alpine. We all look forward to seeing Andretti on the grid in 2026 as the 11th team, albeit under the guise of General Motors.
At the start of the year, I predicted there would be at least two rookies on the grid in 2025, naming Kimi Antonelli and Ollie Bearman, while also claiming Liam Lawson would be back on a full-time basis, all of which came to pass.
Ferrari and Mercedes in second and fourth were my other picks when predicting the grouping behind Red Bull, but it goes to show just how wild 2024 ended up being that the easy assumption that the energy drinks company would retain their title was just a given didn’t even come to pass in the end. I predicted that at least two of Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes would win races after only Ferrari had won in 2023, which also came true. Following Norris’ win in Miami, I also tipped Oscar Piastri to bring home a maiden victory of his own, which he did in Hungary before winning again in Azerbaijan.
Further driver market predictions included Sauber to get rid of both Bottas and Guanyu Zhou, and they opted to bring in Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto. I also made the right pick when figuring out Carlos Sainz’s next move, suggesting he would be Williams-bound. I was correct again when I said that Zhou would not be on the grid at all in 2025. Not bad going for the driver market when it was so volatile at times last year.
Prior to the summer break, I predicted that at least one of the two championships would be close enough to go down to the final race, and we saw McLaren just about edge out Ferrari at Abu Dhabi. I was also correct when I said Verstappen would lose his grip on his home grand prix, which was won in emphatic fashion by Norris.
Lastly, I predicted around the summer break that Perez would be out at Red Bull. That there were so many predictions around the Mexican last year shows just how hard it was to get a read on that situation, with the team themselves seemingly uncertain on what to do right up until the final few races of the year.
Prediction corner
Anyway, those are my predictions from 2024, so we’ll wipe the slate clean again going into this highly anticipated new season. With pre-season testing now underway by the time this newsletter goes up, here is a quick rundown of some rapid fire early predictions for 2025:
1. This will be Yuki Tsunoda’s last year with Racing Bulls, Arvin Lindblad will be within the Red Bull family for 2026.
2. Aston Martin will finish eighth in the championship, or lower.
3. Kimi Antonelli will win a race, but will not beat Verstappen’s record of youngest ever race winner.
4. Ollie Bearman will outscore Esteban Ocon, but a successful season from both will see Haas finish fifth in the championship.
5. Oscar Piastri will close the gap to Norris in their qualifying head-to-head, but Norris will still finish ahead in the standings.
Normal service will resume!
Pre-season testing should now be underway when this is delivered in your inbox, so everything will be back up and running soon, and I will be back with a full and proper season preview between then and the opening race weekend in Australia!