Predicting the future: Who on the F1 grid will still be here in 2026?
FINAL CORNER, CHEQUERED FLAG: The next big rule changes come into effect in 2026, expect the grid to look quite different by then
Silly season is almost upon us in the world of Formula One.
That time of year when contracts are finalised and big decisions are made over driver pairings.
Every few years a big bombshell will drop that will have a huge ripple effect on the rest of the paddock, for example Sebastian Vettel’s decision to retire just 12 months ago.
July and August tend to be the busiest months of the year for these affairs, meaning we are just a number of weeks away from any potential surprise exits or entrants for the 2024 grid.
It’s not expected to be too busy this year, especially given the commotion we saw in 2022, so there’s little point delving into it too much until any big developments emerge.
The 2026 engine regulation changes represent the next big year where we will expect a lot of potential upheaval.
With that in mind, this week’s newsletter looks to predict where the current grid will be going into that campaign…
The first thing to note is that five seats are unaccounted for, and it could frankly be more.
Predicting which rookies will enter the sport is a fool’s errand at the best of times, but three years down the line is impossible to know.
The likes of Oliver Bearman, Theo Pourchaire and Liam Lawson all stand a good chance of making it into F1, but it is impossible to judge whether they will have a race seat in 2026, so those retiring drivers will not be replaced in these predictions.
Elsewhere, those who will remain in their current seats seem relatively straightforward.
It would have to take something seriously unexpected to happen for Max Verstappen to walk away from Red Bull, especially given he has a contract with the team until 2028(!).
Lance Stroll is another driver locked into his seat and it will take a big decision from his father Lawrence to decide to ditch him, no matter how good or bad his performances may be.
George Russell is Mercedes’ golden boy and it is difficult to foresee that changing, even if he hasn’t quite looked ready to replace Lewis Hamilton as the leader of the team just yet.
Hamilton and Fernando Alonso are the harder to predict pair of those that could remain in their seats for 2026.
Both are absolutely determined to win another championship, and who is to say they can’t still do it?
At 38 and 41 respectively they both have the pace to compete at the front, so there is no reason to believe that won’t still be the case in ‘26.
Time is undefeated, but both have remained supremely quick beyond what was expected of them, so perhaps they can still keep going for another few years yet.
Meanwhile, Charles Leclerc is the chosen one at Ferrari and if anything will cause a split there it is more likely to be the Monegasque.
However, Leclerc’s love for Ferrari and ambition to win in red is likely to see him commit to the team for the big new regulations.
Esteban Ocon is in a similar position at Alpine, where he has taken on the role of team leader following Alonso’s 2022 departure.
It would be a big surprise if he were to leave unless a seat opened up at the likes of Red Bull or Mercedes.
Lastly, Oscar Piastri is enjoying a solid rookie season with McLaren, vindicating Zak Brown’s decision to bin Daniel Ricciardo in favour of his compatriot.
While Lando Norris’ future beyond his 2024 contract remains up in the air, the Australian may be perfectly positioned to take over his duties as team leader if the Brit does depart in time for 2026.
Onto the business of who will change teams, and there is a lot that could happen yet.
Speaking of Norris, his McLaren future is looking quite fraught at the moment.
With no works partnership tied up for 2026, there is still some deserved scepticism as to how far this team can go, even with the state-of-the-art facilities that will be ready in the next couple of years.
There will be stiff competition for his signature should he decide to jump ship and Ferrari might be best placed to take advantage.
This will be because Carlos Sainz’s seat should open up in time.
These moves may happen a year earlier than these regulations due to the timing of contracts, but the Spaniard’s future at Ferrari isn’t looking too rosy.
A reunion with Andreas Seidl at the new Audi team, replacing Alfa Romeo at Sauber, could be the perfect next step in his career.
It is unlikely Sainz will be able to overcome the power Leclerc has earned at Ferrari, with his pace just not up to his teammate’s standard.
And Audi will want a big-name signing to mark their entry into the sport, so snatching the 28-year-old from the Scuderia could be the solution that works out best for everyone.
While Zhou Guanyo has done well in the Alfa Romeo, it is hard to see Audi being happy with his performances so far.
The 24-year-old will need to take another step forward in his development to be retained by the German outfit, which he could still manage.
However, a move back to Alpine, where he came through the young driver programme, could be an ideal move for him.
Zhou could perform a solid number two role to Ocon in what should be a relatively safe driver pairing.
Pierre Gasly is more likely to catch the eye of Audi.
A brand as big as Audi would love to have two race-winning drivers in their car and a partnership of Sainz and the Frenchman could be quite competitive.
They will want to make a big splash with their 2026 entry, but may not be able to convince the absolute biggest names to join the party due to their lack of experience in the sport.
So Gasly and Sainz fill that role perfectly of being big names who could also be angling for a move so could take a chance that they knock it out of the park right from the get go.
That leaves just three drivers left to organise into their seats.
Sergio Perez is enjoying success at Red Bull, but by the time 2026 rolls around he will be 36-years-old, the same age Mark Webber was at the start of the 2013 season which proved to be his last.
The Mexican may still have some ambition to keep driving by then, but Red Bull should be looking to their academy once again by this stage.
Yuki Tsunoda has had a great, if unlucky, start to the 2023 season and is starting to show the potential that he may be good enough to take on a Red Bull seat one day.
If he can continue his recent development, then he could prove an ideal partner to Verstappen for the first Red Bull powered F1 car.
If Perez does opt to continue in the sport, which isn’t guaranteed by any means, then a move to Haas makes a lot of sense given the team’s desire for experienced drivers.
A partnership with Alexander Albon could be a great coup for Haas, who will almost certainly be moving on from Nico Hulkenberg and Kevin Magnussen by then.
Meanwhile, the likes of Nyck de Vries and Logan Sargeant are unlikely to still be in the sport in ‘26, having failed to show that they have the speed to compete so far.
Finally, Valtteri Bottas will be turning 37 in 2026 and will have already spent a couple years back in the midfield by then so the new regulations may prove a perfect time for the Finn to call it a day on a very successful career in the sport.
So, there you have it folks.
What do you think?
Quote of the week - Spain
“Mr Steiner stated that if he had meant to insult or offend anyone, he would have used much different words,” wrote an FIA document regarding the Haas team principal.
“The Stewards do not dispute this."
Driver Power Rankings - Spain
Race Rating - Spain
Spain had plenty of action, but none of it was particularly exciting or surprising.
A lot of overtakes were done far too easily due to a long DRS zone on the main straight, and drivers didn’t look like they were fighting too hard to earn the higher position, especially in the race for the top five positions.
Max Verstappen dominated the weekend, executing perfectly with the pace advantage that his Red Bull offers, which unfortunately took away all the suspense that existed the week prior in Monaco.
Saturday’s qualifying session was exciting, but the Grand Prix failed to deliver the same unpredictable action. 2/5.
Story of the week - Canada
The weather in Canada will play a role as a big talking point given the forest fires that were raging in the area recently.
The race is still going ahead as planned for now, but this may change as we get closer to the event if the situation over there worsens.