Embarrassing Monaco GP showing for Mercedes is a 2026 wake-up call
FINAL CORNER, CHEQUERED FLAG: The once-dominant team hit a new low point in Monaco
Mercedes were the worst-performing team at the Monaco grand prix with their engine in the car.
Aston Martin may also have scored no points, but Fernando Alonso was on for a top seven finish before a mechanical issue ended his race early. Meanwhile, Williams got both cars inside the top 10 and McLaren had both of their drivers on the podium, including race winner Lando Norris. George Russell only managed 11th, and poor strategy led to Andrea Kimi Antonelli coming last on the road.
This is a low point for the team and a worrying sign for things to come as we enter the next set of regulations in 2026. This is a squad that won a record eight constructors’ championships from 2014 to 2021, but haven’t even won eight races in the years since.
It is no coincidence that the team that used to spend more than any other in the sport started to struggle with the introduction of a cost cap. But at least in 2022, when the last set of major rule changes came into force, Mercedes were still the best on the grid using their power unit (PU). In 2023 they were overtaken by Aston Martin in the first half of the campaign, and then McLaren in the second half.
While they recovered ahead of Aston Martin — who will use a Honda PU in 2026 — McLaren went on to win the 2024 championship and will almost certainly win it again this year. In a pre-budget cap world, this never would’ve been possible. However, now it is a worrying sign going into next year’s big shake-up.
The new engine rules likely mean that the sport will move from an aero formula to an engine formula, meaning whoever has the best PU is most likely to win the championship, instead of who has the best car design.
The 2014 rule changes were the last time F1 went from an aero formula to an engine formula, and this was the dawn of Mercedes’ dominance, with the Brackley outfit nailing the V6 turbo-hybrids, giving them a huge advantage over the rest of the field. However, anyone expecting that same advantage again should look towards this Monaco race for why that might not be the case.
Of course, nobody knows just yet how much progress the different manufacturers have made — along with Mercedes, there’s Ferrari, Red Bull Power Trains, Audi and Honda — and there’s every chance that they will have the best PU of these teams. But, crucially, McLaren will have more input on this process than your typical customer team, as outlined by CEO Zak Brown back in 2023.
“I’m of the view that you can win a World Championship with a customer engine,” said the American.1
“I know that in our new contract, without going into great detail, the areas in which you would have shortcomings by being a customer versus a works team, we’ve addressed that and we have a great agreement with HPP [Mercedes High-Performance Powertrains].
“What it means, in reality, is we have more influence and awareness early on in their development. So we’re not handed a final product without having an input into what that final product looks like and having earlier awareness of where they’re headed. So the things we need to design around the power unit, we’re not starting that much later than the works team.”
Given how well McLaren have done in 2024 and 2025, and the advantage they’ve held over their PU supplier in this time, it would be foolish to rule them out of title contention again next year, provided Mercedes do as good a job in 2026 as they did all those years ago in 2014.
However, 2014 was quite some time ago and it’s far from guaranteed that lightning will strike twice. In particular, because Mercedes have suffered a massive brain drain on their engineering talent in the time since then. Red Bull have spun up their own engine manufacturing production, with it being widely reported in 2021 that key figures from the then world champions had made the switch to Milton Keynes.2
This includes the likes of Steve Blewett (PU production director), Omid Mostaghimi (Head of powertrains Electronics and ERS) and Anton Mayo (Head of PU design ICE), among others. These are names that have gone unnoticed by many viewers of F1, but they are key people behind the scenes and their loss will have been felt by Mercedes.
Another crucial factor is that a cost cap will once again be in place for the manufacturing and design of these new engines, which wasn’t the case during their dominant period of 2014 to 2021. We’ve already seen how much that’s hindered their progress on the aerodynamic and design aspect of the car itself, and it could now have a similar impact on the PU.
Finally, one other aspect of these new rules that could prove problematic for Mercedes is their fuel partner Petronas. Each PU manufacturer in F1 has their own fuel supplier, for example Honda are partnered with Aramco and Ferrari with Shell. In Mercedes’ case, they are paired with the Malaysian company Petronas.
Prior to the new 2022 regulations, each PU was running with 5.75 per cent biofuels.3 This rose to 10 per cent in 2022, and the Mercedes engine’s advantage took a step backwards from this point on. The 2026 engines will be using 100 per cent sustainable fuels in 2026 (with an asterisk on the use of the word “sustainable”). This will be yet another big test for Petronas, and could cause issues for the team’s grand designs.
Any speculation on the strength of the grid’s upcoming PUs for next year should still be taken with a big grain of salt, as we won’t truly know who is doing well until the cars hit the test track early next year. It’s very possible the Mercedes engine will bring an advantage similar to 2014, but based on Monaco’s performance — and their struggles in recent years — it’s difficult to suggest it’s the Mercedes team that will truly benefit.
Prediction corner
My prediction that McLaren would win all three of Miami, Imola and Monaco didn't come to pass (thanks Imola), and now this week we have the new technical directive impacting flexi-wings in place. Most teams will have to bring new parts, and there will be plenty of upgrades too. My prediction is McLaren will still win in Spain despite all of these new elements.
Also, my prediction that Imola would remain a typical one-stopper didn’t work out, with nobody completing the race on one-stop, and I think that plenty would’ve two-stopped had no safety cars been thrown out anyway.
I’m now 1/5 for the year.
Race Rating - Imola & Monaco
Imola provided solid entertainment for what will likely be its final race there, at least for now, with tyre strategy adding a lot of variety. Pirelli will surely be pleased with their experiments there, which could be a good sign for the racing for the rest of the season, which has been an issue up to now. 3/5.
The shake-up of the rules didn’t quite work, though some appreciation must be given for making an effort. This was still better than the 2024 parade that we got, and there have been worse Monaco races. While qualifying wouldn’t normally impact my judgement, it does in this case too because qualifying is always special around this track. 2/5.
Driver Power Rankings - Imola & Monaco
Verstappen narrowly missed out on pole but made up for it with a sublime lap one overtake, and he controlled everything from the front from there. Norris made a good recovery from p4 on the grid, and Albon was once again impressive on Sunday in the Williams.
Hamilton and Leclerc showed the Ferrari has race pace but just can’t qualify high enough up to make the most out of it at the minute, with both drivers having a solid weekend with contrasting fortunes.
Piastri had perhaps his weakest race of the season up to that point, though still took home a podium for damage limitation.
Hadjar continued to impress in the Racing Bulls, while Alonso and Hulkenberg drove quite well despite not quite making it into the top 10.
Meanwhile, Sainz ended up struggling in the other Williams, with a poor strategy leading him to fall way behind his teammate.
Imola ranking: 1. Max Verstappen. 2. Alex Albon. 3. Lando Norris. 4. Lewis Hamilton. 5. Charles Leclerc. 6. Carlos Sainz. 7. Fernando Alonso. 8. Oscar Piastri. 9. Isack Hadjar. 10. Nico Hulkenberg.
Hard to really judge this one on anything other qualifying, but there were some circumstances where a driver didn’t just rank where they were on Saturday.
Piastri, Hamilton and Sainz were all underwhelming compared to their respective teammates, and Hadjar’s errors in practice are really the only notable things that can be picked apart from the top 10.
Monaco ranking: 1. Lando Norris. 2. Charles Leclerc. 3. Max Verstappen. 4. Fernando Alonso. 5. Isack Hadjar. 6. Alex Albon. 7. Esteban Ocon. 8. Oscar Piastri. 9. Liam Lawson. 10. Carlos Sainz.
Here’s how that impacts the DPR Championship standings after round 8:
Quote of the week
“I’ll take the penalty, [Albon’s] driving erratically,” said Russell, before being handed a drive-through penalty instead of what he thought would be a 10s punishment.
Source: Motorsportweek
Source: Sky Sports