Liam Lawson is a victim of Red Bull's larger issues
FINAL CORNER, CHEQUERED FLAG: Red Bull are the true creators of their own downfall
Liam Lawson’s struggles at Red Bull are indicative of a larger problem within the team that extends far beyond one driver.
Max Verstappen has made a solid start to his latest title defence. The Dutchman is currently second in the standings and only eight points behind leader Lando Norris. That the RB21 is quite obviously not the fastest machine in the sport only further highlights the strength of his current position. Verstappen dominated F1 in 2022 and 2023, but that was eroded by McLaren in 2024 and they now look to have the upper hand in 2025.
So, now even if Verstappen can keep up with Lando Norris and Oscar Pisatri on track race-by-race, Red Bull simply have no hope of keeping up with the papaya team over a whole season. The simple matter of fact is that Lawson’s performances so far this campaign have been abysmal. The New Zealand native had just 11 grands prix under his belt before joining the squad this year, and that inexperience really showed after just Australia and China.
This has led to him not even making it to round three in Japan. It has been confirmed that his former Racing Bulls (fka. Toro Rosso, Alpha Tauri) teammate Yuki Tsunoda will replace him in time for his home race. It’s a sensational decision and a clear admission that the wrong choice was made at the end of last year over who to pair with Verstappen.
There was a lot of surprise within the F1 world when Tsunoda was overlooked. He’s enjoyed four strong seasons in the junior/sister side, getting better year after year as his experience grows. While Lawson was competitive over their 11 grands prix together, it was also clear that the Japanese driver had the upper hand. But Red Bull still gambled on the younger of the two, betting that he would only get faster as he gained more experience.
Unfortunately, patience is not a trait shared by many among the F1 paddock, and Red Bull simply don’t have the time to afford it either. They are already 42 points behind McLaren in the standings, and sit third behind Mercedes as well — who have an even more inexperienced number two to their name in Andrea Kimi Antonelli.
Red Bull’s blushes have been spared somewhat by Ferrari’s own bumbling errors, as otherwise they could easily be fourth while Verstappen is second. Coming third with a world champion driver is unheard of in F1, and the 27-year-old was the first to do so since Keke Rosberg in 1982 when he achieved his fourth title last year.
The struggles to find a strong teammate for Verstappen go as far back as 2019, when Pierre Gasly was brought in for the outgoing Daniel Ricciardo. The Frenchman only managed half a season before being dropped for Alex Albon. While the arrival of Sergio Perez in 2021 saw some stability for the team, his decline across 2023 and 2024 meant a change needed to be made. Lawson was a gamble, however Red Bull haven’t even attempted to stick with it. They have given up after just two races — two races where Lawson didn’t even make the grid for the start, instead beginning from the pit lane both times.
Albon explained why some of these issues persist at Red Bull last year in an interview with Jake Humphrey.1 The Thai driver claimed that the car is on such a knife-edge, comparing it to having the sensitivity settings turned all the way up on your laptop or desktop’s mouse, that it becomes very difficult for even the best drivers in the world to handle.
“Truthfully, the car is what it is, he is very quick, so what ends up happening is… He has quite a unique driving style, it’s not that easy to get along with,” said Albon.
“Everyone has a driving style, I would say my driving style is a bit more on the smooth side, but I like a car that has a good front-end, so quite sharp, quite direct. Max does too, but his level of sharp and direct is a whole different level – it’s eye-wateringly sharp.
“To give people kind of maybe an explanation of what that might feel like, if you bump up the sensitivity [on a computer game] completely to the max and you move that mouse and it’s just darting across the screen everywhere, that’s kind of how it feels. It becomes so sharp that it makes you a little bit tense.”
While some believe this to be how Verstappen wants the car, and Red Bull simply design the car around that desire, it’s also been abundantly clear that the world champion is increasingly frustrated by the balance of the RB21. The difference between him and someone like Lawson, however, is that he can actually get on with it and extract performance from the machine despite these issues.
This is what makes Verstappen such a talented athlete, but also what makes it so difficult for Red Bull in finding solutions to their much grander problems. If Verstappen can keep adapting, it becomes harder to see these problems and thus it’s harder to find a way to fix it. Verstappens also don’t grow on trees, so putting two of him in the car also won’t work.
This vicious cycle will cost Red Bull the championship this year, potentially both of them, and it might even cost them their star driver. Mercedes’ Toto Wolff is no stranger to publicly courting Verstappen. George Russell’s contract is up this year, and the opportunity to replace him with the best talent on the grid is a prospect that Wolff might just pursue.
Verstappen has a contract until 2028, but it’s possible that performance-related clauses might make him available this year and that could very easily entail ensuring Red Bull remain a top three team. If the second car isn’t scoring points, and Ferrari get their act together, then suddenly the four-time champion might just become available if they slip down to fourth in the table.
In that context, it makes sense why Red Bull will feel the need to rush Lawson out the door when they’ve previously been far more patient with Albon and Perez — Gasly did only get around a dozen races, but it’s been reported he fell out with certain members of the team.2
Lawson’s been sacrificed at the altar of keeping Verstappen. But his own dissatisfaction at how this saga has been handled by the team, which he made clear during the Chinese Grand Prix, might just do more harm than good and force their star driver into a rethink over his long-term future, having previously declared his loyalty to them.
Red Bull are trapped between a rock and hard place of their own making, and there may be no way out. Their only hope is that Tsunoda delivers where Lawson couldn’t. Now it’s time for the Japanese driver to show what he can do under this intense pressure.
Prediction Corner
My previous prediction didn’t work out, leaving me 0/1 so far this season as Piastri did not earn a home podium.
My prediction for this week is that Yuki Tsunoda will make Q3 in Japan.
Driver Power Rankings
I’ve made a change to how I’m going to do the Power Rankings this year. I’ll still judge the best 10 drivers, but I’ll do it per each individual race instead of for their performance in between newsletters.
I will also be awarding championship points for their top 10 finishes in the same way drivers earn points in real races, and I’ll keep you updated on how that the DPR Championship is going throughout the year.
Here are the standings after the first two races
Note that both Ferrari drivers and Gasly were disqualified during the Chinese Grand Prix, so their performances were thrown out of consideration.
Race Ratings - Australia & China
The Australian Grand Prix was a strong way to start the year. It was a great mixture of chaos, intrigue and a great test of driver skill. 4/5.
However, the second race brought us back down to Earth a bit, with the strategy intrigue boiling down to a conventional one-stopper. An underwhelming event, even if the results on paper were a welcome sign for a fun season ahead. 1/5.
Storyline to follow
Tsunoda’s performances in the Red Bull seem an obvious storyline everyone will be keeping a close eye on, especially in his native Japan.
But something else to keep an eye on is Albon’s current strong start against Carlos Sainz at Williams. The next triple header should give us a good idea of how that partnership is shaking out after Sainz’s initial struggles at his new team.
Source: The High Performance Podcast