Making sense of Max Verstappen's Red Bull threat
FINAL CORNER, CHEQUERED FLAG: A move to Mercedes in 2025 could actually make sense for Max Verstappen
Max Verstappen leaving Red Bull for Mercedes isn’t as crazy as it initially sounds.
The Dutchman is the dominant force in F1 at the moment, and that simply isn’t possible without the incredible machinery designed for him by the Red Bull team.
If the 25-year-old traded places with George Russell or Lewis Hamilton then he would be the one sitting in the midfield, and they would be contending for yet another title victory.
That’s the simple fact of the sport, a man is only as good as his car allows him to be, and the combination of Verstappen and Red Bull is perhaps the fiercest F1 has ever seen.
Yet the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix last weekend brought up the seemingly impossible idea that Verstappen could actually jump ship from the Milton Keynes outfit while at their absolute peak.
Helmut Marko’s looming suspension
Everything kicked off on Friday night following qualifying when Red Bull’s senior adviser Dr. Helmut Marko, who really puts the “senior” in his job title at 80-years-of-age, revealed that he was expecting himself to be suspended by the team very soon.
This was in relation to the scandal that has hit Red Bull in the last month, with team principal Christian Horner having been accused of inappropriate and controlling behaviour by a female employee.
While a lot remains unclear behind the scenes at Red Bull, it is clear that a power struggle is taking place that involves Horner and Marko, among others.
With that in mind, Marko’s comments had to be taken quite seriously, especially as the Austrian was the right-hand man to Red Bull’s founder Dietrich Mateschitz, who passed in late 2022.
Verstappen reiterated how big of a bombshell Marko’s potential suspension would be for the team when he went to bat for his mentor, even going so far as threatening his own position within the team in the event that the senior adviser left his role.
“It is very important that he stays,” said Verstappen following Marko’s comments.1
“I feel like if such an important pillar falls away, and I have told the team this, that it is not good for my situation as well.”
In no uncertain terms, Verstappen threw his weight behind Marko and thus threatened his own position within the team.
While the world champion has a contract with Red Bull until 2028, it is being reported that he could be free to leave if Marko does depart.2
Mercedes welcome to Max Verstappen
Of course, one team looking for a new driver in 2025 is Mercedes, so naturally Toto Wolff was asked about the prospect of hiring a potentially available Verstappen.
Wolff knew all too well what he was doing with his response, leaving the door open for the possibility of one of the world’s best drivers joining his team.
"I would love to have him,” said the Mercedes team principal.3
“But first we need to sort out our car.
“We owe it to our drivers George and Lewis to improve the car and give them equipment that is good before dreaming about the future next year.”
The two parts of his answer may look funny when put next to each other, why would Verstappen leave a team dominating the sport for one stuck in the middle of the pack?
The Mercedes car is simply not fast enough at the moment, seemingly in battle with McLaren for third place in the constructors standings.
That is someway off the ambition someone like Verstappen will want to see from any possible new team.
On the face of it, it sounds crazy that he could even consider a move to his fierce rivals, especially after how heated things got during the intense 2021 championship battle.
However, there could be more to this than meets the eye.
A big shift in F1’s pecking order is coming
Red Bull may be on top now, but nothing lasts forever and the crucial 2026 season is fast approaching.
A new set of engine regulations will shake up the order, and could be what Mercedes needs to get back on top.
Red Bull will be making their own engine for the very first time, moving away from Honda, and there are no guarantees that it will be successful.
It is a huge gamble by the manufacturer, and one that could take a number of years to get right.
The far more experienced Mercedes are a much safer bet, especially considering their dominant period from 2014 to 2020 was built on the strength of their engine package.
Verstappen may already have one eye on the future, and a move to Mercedes in 2025 may be a worthwhile move in the long-run, even if it means sacrificing another title.
Red Bull will no doubt be the favourites for next year’s championship given their current advantage over the rest of the grid, but Mercedes could be the next dominant force in the sport come 2026.
With an open seat available now for 2025, there won’t be a better chance to make that jump than this year.
Being proactive instead of reactive can be quite lucrative in the driver market, just look at Hamilton’s move to the Brackley team in 2012 as the perfect example.
The Brit left a very competitive McLaren team for Mercedes and went on to win six more championships, while the dominant driver of the time, Sebastian Vettel, didn’t win again after the V6 turbo-hybrid engines were introduced in 2014.
Verstappen could learn from Hamilton’s rise and Vettel’s demise to try and maximise his world title hopes by switching teams early, even if it means sacrificing the 2025 crown.
Of course, there are no guarantees either Red Bull or Mercedes will have the best car in 2026, but these are the factors drivers have to gamble with when deciding on their preferred choice of team.
It looks as if Marko earned a stay of execution at Red Bull for the time being, but uncertainty still hangs over those in charge of the team.
As long as that’s the case, then Verstappen should use the leverage of a swap to Mercedes to his advantage.
Quote of the week
“We are one team and nobody is bigger than a team,” said Horner in the wake of Verstappen’s thinly veiled threat to leave Red Bull.4
“This team comprises, across the different entities, over 1,400 people, and everybody has a role to play and that’s from the very bottom to the very top.”
Prediction corner
While the speculation over Verstappen’s future is fun to think about, the second Red Bull seat is in much more obvious need of resolution.
Sergio Perez is out of contract this year, so someone will need to be confirmed for that seat for 2025.
Based on his positive start to the year, I predict Perez will keep that seat with a 1-year extension.
Race Reviews - Bahrain & Saudi Arabia
Neither of the two season openers were exactly stunning, and this may be the worst double header to start a new season that I can remember.
Bahrain usually delivers an exciting race, but this was perhaps the weakest the track has seen since switching to night-time in 2014. 1/5.
The second race in Jeddah didn’t fare much better, although Oliver Bearman’s impressive stand-in at Ferrari did provide some excitement.
Otherwise it was a fairly tame race with no real surprises or hard racing. 1/5.
Driver Power Rankings - Bahrain & Saudi Arabia
Bearman’s impressive stand-in performance deserves a shout-out, with a p7 finish being a very respectable result all things considered.
Elsewhere, Russell and Alonso have quietly gone about their business earning solid results, while the two McLaren drivers have traded blows in their opening two rounds which has hurt their overall ranking here.
Leclerc is also slightly hurt by a mechanical issue in Bahrain and then not having a proper benchmark alongside him in Saudi, which were both out of his control.
Otherwise, it’s difficult to look past Verstappen in top spot, with Nico Hulkenberg being the only non-top 5 team driver to earn a point from the opening two races.
Storyline to keep an eye on - Australia
By the time this newsletter will return the Australian GP will have happened, so one thing to keep an eye on in Melbourne is the performance of the two hometown boys.
Oscar Piastri has made a solid start to 2024, but Daniel Ricciardo is already under pressure to perform in the Toro Rosso (RB).
Source: The Guardian
Source: RacingNews365
Source: Sky Sports
Source: The Guardian