Lewis Hamilton's amazing foresight strikes again
FINAL CORNER, CHEQUERED FLAG: The seven-time champion might just have pulled another rabbit out of the hat
The only team move in Lewis Hamilton’s career is the best in F1 history.
Swapping McLaren for Mercedes was considered a strange move in 2012, having won a championship with the Woking outfit and seriously competed for three more.
Hamilton was criticised for chasing money and not titles, but he ultimately secured six with the Brackley team, while McLaren floundered.
“Perhaps he thinks that if it fails he will at least have the consolation of earning loads more money and being a bigger star, thanks to his hustling management that will sell his image here, there and everywhere,” wrote journalist Joe Saward at the time.1
“That might make him an international celebrity on a bigger scale than he is, but it will not make him a racing legend.
“Perhaps Mercedes will pull it off and then Hamilton will look clever, but I fear that this will be a move similar to James Hunt joining Wolf; Emerson Fittipaldi joining Fittipaldi, Jacques Villeneuve moving to BAR or Niki Lauda's ill-fated move to Brabham.”
But the Briton might be heading for a two for two record of successful team moves following the confirmation of his switch to Ferrari for 2025.
When the news dropped in February it shocked the entire sport, nobody ever expected him to drive for anyone but Mercedes — who he has been with since 2013.
Given the 2024 season hadn’t even started yet, it seemed a huge gamble to swap the team that came second in 2023 for the team that narrowly finished behind in third.
A lacklustre start to the season by Mercedes
But the first four races this year have completely vindicated that decision so far, and nothing happening off-track has caused any other doubts to creep in.
One team has a clear upward trajectory and the other is looking like it’s only going backwards.
A doomed one stop attempt in Japan was quickly abandoned by Mercedes after the team realised it was going nowhere.
But by then it was too late, and George Russell and Hamilton could only settle for an underwhelming p7 and p9 finish.
Mercedes are battling Aston Martin for fourth in the standings and just barely winning, despite Lance Stroll effectively leaving Fernando Alonso to do it all by himself most of the time.
Meanwhile, Ferrari have won once and have at least one podium at each of the first four events of 2024.
The gap to Red Bull is certainly closer than it was 12 months ago, and several of the team’s weaknesses appear to be less of an issue than in the past, both on and off the track.
Charles Leclerc made that one-stop strategy work in Japan, displaying a kindness on the tyres a Ferrari hasn’t seen in years.
It also highlighted the stark difference between these two teams, and further suggests Hamilton has pulled off another masterstroke of a decision.
While there are no guarantees Red Bull can be caught, Ferrari are now easily second best and most likely to put up a challenge before the 2026 regulations kick in.
Ferrari have also hired a lot of talented engineers, as they prepare for those new rules in two years, while Mercedes have seen a lot of big names depart, such as the well-respected Eric Blandin and Enrico Baldo.
The Italian team also seemingly has a much better grasp of the ground effect that now underpins the entire current car design.
Mercedes’ weakened bargaining position
The last time there was a free Mercedes seat, in 2017, saw the team have the pick of the grid.
Almost everybody would have jumped at the chance to make that switch, but now the options are far more limited.
Top talent like Leclerc, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are all signed up to long-term deals at their respective teams.
Max Verstappen also has a long-term deal, but that hasn’t stopped Toto Wolff from courting the Dutchman — as discussed in this newsletter previously.
But Fernando Alonso, a free agent going into 2025, summed up why a move to the eight time championship winners might not be as enticing as it once was.
“Mercedes are behind us, so it doesn't feel that attractive,” said the Spaniard, when asked about a potential switch from Aston Martin.2
So if Hamilton is to win that elusive eighth world championship, then a seat at Ferrari might just be his best bet.
While the 2025 season will be tough to take down the ever-impressive Red Bull, the Scuderia should also be well placed to be competitive in 2026 due to their prowess at engine design.
A world title at Ferrari might just be worth the same as all six earned at Mercedes, and it would ensure Hamilton’s place as the best driver in the sport’s history… at changing teams at the right time.
Prediction corner
Lewis Hamilton will win more races for Ferrari than Mercedes do during his time in red.
Quote of the week
“Obviously the driver market is moving and in the next few weeks there are going to be a lot of movements for sure,” said Perez.
“So, I expect within a month to really know what I am doing next year.”
Driver power rankings - Japan
Verstappen had a flawless weekend, making it difficult to argue he should be anywhere but first.
Alonso was also impressive (although perhaps not as impressive as he made out post-race), achieving another top six finish in the fifth fastest car.
It was also a solid weekend from Sergio Perez, Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris.
Leclerc deserves a lot of credit for pulling off his one-stop strategy, but an unusually poor qualifying does mark him down for the weekend overall.
Nico Hulkenberg didn’t score, but recovered well after dropping to last after the red flag restart, while Yuki Tsunoda earned another important point for Toro Rosso (RB).
Race review - Japan
This was a classic strategy race, with teams have to out-wit their rivals through the pit stops.
On those terms, it was quite exciting everywhere but the very front.
This is as good a race as we’re likely to get as long as Verstappen remains so far out in front, but it still delivered on some quality entertainment. 3/5.
Storyline to keep an eye out for - China
F1 returns to China next time out, the first race in Shanghai since 2019!
It will also be a sprint weekend, meaning the teams will need to nail their set-ups with just one hour of practice before the real sessions begin.
This will be a big test of the team’s ability to get into a sweetspot quickly, something Ferrari have been quite good at in recent history.
Source: Sky Sports